Our Forecasting Methodology

How we combine data science and expert knowledge to predict the bite.

The 3rdcoast-reeltime forecast is more than just a weather report; it's a sophisticated fishing intelligence engine. Our goal is to replicate the decision-making process of a seasoned fishing guide by synthesizing multiple, complex data sources into a simple, actionable forecast.

1. Data Aggregation

For any given location, we begin by pulling in real-time and forecast data from a variety of trusted, public sources. This includes:

  • National Weather Service (NWS): For temperature, wind speed and direction, cloud cover, and any active weather alerts.
  • NOAA: For detailed tidal predictions, including high/low tide times and heights for coastal locations.
  • Google Weather API: For hyper-local UV Index forecasts.
  • Solunar.org API: For Major and Minor solunar feeding periods based on moon phase and position.
  • USGS/USACE: For lake and reservoir water level data for inland fisheries.

2. AI-Powered Analysis (The "Secret Sauce")

This is where our system shines. Raw data is fed into our custom-tuned AI model (powered by Google's Gemini). The model is given a specific "persona": an expert fishing biologist and meteorologist. It is tasked with analyzing all the data points in relation to each other. It doesn't just see "high tide"; it sees "high tide coinciding with a major solunar period at sunset," which is a much more powerful insight.

The AI is responsible for generating the qualitative parts of the forecast:

  • The overall Fishing Outlook summary.
  • The Best Times to Fish, synthesized from tides, solunar data, and time of day.
  • The actionable Fishing Tip based on conditions like wind direction and structure.
  • Tackle Box recommendations based on water clarity and likely forage.
  • Inferred conditions like water clarity and dominant forage patterns.

3. Caching for Efficiency and Accuracy

To provide fast-loading forecasts and reduce costs, we implement a 2-hour caching strategy. When a location is searched, we first check if a valid forecast has been generated within the last two hours. If so, we serve that cached data. If not, we generate a fresh forecast and store it. This ensures the data is always relevant, as key conditions like wind and weather don't typically change drastically within a 2-hour window.

4. Editorial Oversight

Our system is built on decades of real-world fishing experience. The prompts that guide our AI and the logic that interprets the data are all designed by avid anglers. Our blog content is written by a team of fishing enthusiasts and experts to provide context and deeper knowledge that complements the data-driven forecasts.

This combination of robust data, advanced AI analysis, and human expertise allows us to provide a forecast that is trustworthy, accurate, and uniquely valuable to anglers.